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5c - Regional Labor Study ReportOFFICE OF COMMUNITY PARTNERSHIPS Assessing the Local Economy and Patterns of Job Postings CITY OF FEDERAL WAY This report focuses on a set of labor analyses based on data provided by EMSI. This is followed by selected analytics related to job postings during the calendar years 2020 and 2021. Given the impact of COVID-19 on the economy, this report provides an analysis of the economy of Federal Way as it has begun to recover from the global pandemic. Section I: Economic Landscape Using data from the last five years, population growth is outpacing job growth, with the expectation that this pattern will continue over the next five years (Figure 1). This is not unusual, since this pattern can be observed in other smaller cities in a metropolitan area. The highest levels of job growth (2016-2021) have occurred in government, healthcare and social assistance, retail, construction, and Professional/technical/scientific (Figure 2). The first three exceed the national average for the number of jobs in cities of comparable size. Percentagewise, information, Professional/technical/scientific, and retail have witnessed the largest growth (Figure 3). As information related jobs have grown from 2016 to 2021, Federal Way has approached the national average in this sector (again for cities of comparable size). That is not the case for professional, technical, and scientific jobs. By the size of their employment, government, healthcare and social assistance, and retail are the top sectors, and all three witnessed growth between 2016 and 2021 (Figure 4). Given the size and growth of healthcare and social assistance, this sector, along with information technology, could become the major economic characteristic of Federal Way, followed by retail. It is important to pay attention to the declining employment opportunities in lower paying service jobs, such as accommodation and food services. The location quotient, which provides a quick assessment of the level of concentration, identifies the same three large employment sectors (government, healthcare and social assistance, and retail) as highly concentrated for a city the size of Federal Way (Figure 5). Analyzing jobs from the perspective of wages provides an additional glimpse into the emerging economy of the city (Figure 6). Except for Healthcare Support, all jobs paying less than $20 per hour (on average) declined between 2016 and 2021 (Figure 6). Higher income category jobs, on the other hand, have grown. This paints a picture of declining service jobs and growth of more employment opportunities in higher paying professional categories. Many of the high paying jobs, however, are small in their employment size, except for healthcare and social assistance jobs (Figures 6). It is noteworthy that government and retail sectors are the largest contributors to the gross regional economy (Figure 7), even though retail is not necessarily high -income generating sector. The two sectors are followed by the information sector, which also provides the largest income for its employees (Figure 8). This might be an economic development opportunity for Federal Way to explore further (Figure 9). That said, should retail employment Report provided by UW Tacoma Office of Community Partnerships' Center for Applied Urban Research (CAUR) opportunities decline further, Federal Way may have to consider its land use and alternative employment potentials for its residents. At this point, retail seems to continue to grow, albeit that the rate of growth remains low. 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2016 Federal Way Population and Job Trends 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 -P.PuI.ttoo -Jabs Figure 1: Population and Job Trends 2016/2021 Federal Way Job Growth with National Average 3,000 7,000 6,000 0 5,000 4,000 0 3,000 _ 2,000 _ 1,000 o_ _ A 11 T� o° Pt Qc r° ¢hid P ° F oc CQ0 R` 0I 0 O � ` ON� Qa 02016 Jobs 02021 Jobs —National Average in 2021 Jobs Do,. Figure 2: Job Growth with National Average 2016/2021 Federal Way Industry Growth/Decline Inln—r.n Pror..s i... 1, Sri.M M, hnd T.A.k.l Services R.Ioil Trod. Ed— i...I S—i... R.— and 1—r— Agri.W.. L Foreelry C.nrfrodion Heollh Core and 5-1.1 AssW.— Ae°I Esfole, R—W and leasing W°sle M—gem.nt.nd Rem.di° ion Gwe�nmeM � Trap p.ftfi.n and Warehousing Management Wh.1-1. Trod. Other S—i— Wififi.. Ma..Nd°Hng A— ..dolion and Fo.d Service Az Enl.rl.inm.nl, and R—..alion 15% 15% %Cla n.e In Jehs 2 Report provided by UW Tacoma Office of Community Partnerships' Center for Applied Urban Research (CAUR) Figure 3: Industry Growth/Decline 2016/2021 Federal Way Change In Jobs B4O00 7,000 6,000 „ 5,000 0 a 4,000 s 3,000 2,000 • • 1,000 0 — e�ec5o`�L ec� a+eao +°o0c �+ec�.p°,b°4�,°``�b,s c �, 4 Se ° c�c�0`®o �~eag 'oca+�Fmc` `c4c � A�°ca o ado° °�a\c a�e`e °*b Geo 0�m 11qP loco\ o ee\Pb` Go P� �a� caPec 3� of °t, Fc °°e \e eo , c F A` a core °c Q rio eco S c°�o. a r � 60% 50% 40 % ■ 2016 Jobs ■ 2021 Jobs • % Growth in Jobs •% Decline In Jobs Data wares: Efn5101 2022 Drlo 5e1 Figure 4: Change in Jobs 2021 Federal Way Location Quotient 8,000 1.60 7,000 O 1.40 6,000 Al O 5,000 O • 1.00 a, 2 • e U 4,000 0.80 • d e 3,000 • • • s,vvv 0 a0 • 1,000 , , ' , ' ' ' 0.20 o — � - o.Do .Is o .L c` 0�0 c e °c o eb° 1•° i '` �o S Ao e0° ocay ° eya'J�c cB \CAa'dogo`°e °coo` �m Via` yr ca o 4 e b a w° °:� prb °cm ° ohm° o ° Q` —2021 lobs • Above 10 • B0ow10 —National LO Dolo ..:EM$1012022D-5er Figure 5: Location Quotient 3 Report provided by UW Tacoma Office of Community Partnerships' Center for Applied Urban Research (CAUR) 2021 Federal Way Median Hourly Wage with Job Growth $70.00 30% „ $6o.ov • soi 3 • a Sso.00 O • 10°0 • o Sno.00 E3o.00 $2o.ov $10.00 I I I Izo°i� 50.00 �4P a 3a °0e+` a•� `p e` tee'° ®r e �•Ox` �-e °a o A° oQ° G° p ae °� `yF ° �• °b 1?c Q i'``°` ¢ae Pap � F e� $050,000 $300,000 d $130,000 =$zoo,000 0150,000 • 2021 -dI- H—Iy E—wg, SIA Increase —6 0edi°° Figure 6: Median Hourly Wage with Job Growth 2021 Federal Way Earnings Per Worker with Gross Regional Product O O a` $100,000 • sso.00a so � 4 c ,t ; `»°''e4`°�F c4° O a b `P 64\PF 3�°a6�°e V°e, �O G°,°' P� oat �{•e ° a p p ti $1,600,000,00a E1,400,000,000 $1,200,000,000 3 $1,000,000,000 d $aoo,000,000 $aoo,oav,ova $400,o00,000 l2 E2oo,000,000 $o • 2021 Earnings Per W-k., • 2021 GRP .---.. finsi o1 Boas oaa s.1 Figure 7: Earnings Per Worker with GRP 4 Report provided by UW Tacoma Office of Community Partnerships' Center for Applied Urban Research (CAUR) 2016/2021 Federal Way Annual Earnings with Job Growth $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 o $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 � $3 Ox Bra` 0a` ° ° Cay°4• 05` a o ° a �° P a F `lam 30° 60% 50 40% � 30%— m 20% m V 10% 3 0% (20%1 e y � e" 09 a` 02021 Earnings Per Worker •Job G th 01.6 D-Ii— om ---Q1 2.12-- Figure 8: Annual Earnings with Job Growth 2021 Federal Way Top Growing Industries $350,000 60 % $300,000 50% $250,000 E 40 $200,000 0 30 `o $150,000 a 20 � $1 aa,000 $50,000 ; � 10% , � $014141 0% `Cq 4-1 c` c ° `C9 G C O m�' bi, " •°Pg n&� `ce` o°` 0�° �� oCa aaCy � c Jp � Ps °ca s �CCC s` a � •` c°°�, A° o P9`L e,C lq,° ", a V o Q• • 2021 Earnings Per Worker •%Chong. In lobs Om°wurcr. EM510120220d° Sw Figure 9: Top Growing Industries Section II: Job Postings Jobs posting analytics allow us to explore the overall changes in the labor market. While job postings are typically a good indicator of labor demands, the last two years (as we have gone through the ups and downs of the pandemic and its impact on the economy) can be highly illustrative of the continuing labor needs of Federal Way and some of the unusual changes/shifts it might have faced. To perform this analysis, we examined all the job postings for the city and compared January to December 2020 (CY (Calendar Year) 2020) period with January to December 2021 (CY 2021). During CY 2020, there were a total of 40,086 postings, with 11,315 being unique (translating to posting intensity of 4:1). During CY 2021, there were a total of 59,959 postings, with 14,945 being unique (translating once again to posting intensity of 4:1). Clearly, the job market expanded from 2020 to 2021, fitting the growth 5 Report provided by UW Tacoma Office of Community Partnerships' Center for Applied Urban Research (CAUR) patterns that started in 2018 (Figure 10). While many jobs posted in 2020 offered annual incomes below $35K, a sizable number offered $60K or higher (Figure 11). This pattern, with a slight shift to higher incomes, was repeated in 2021. This is another indication that Federal Way has a bifurcated economy of emerging professional and high paying jobs, along with sizable services and retail jobs that offer lower incomes. Combining the two, posted jobs in Federal Way have maintained an hourly average wage of about $20 (or an annual income of about $40K) (Figure 12). Surprisingly, more than 40% of jobs in 2020 and 2021 did not require any education, with some asking for high school education (Figure 13). About 60% also did not mention or require any job experience (Figure 14). This might suggest that the majority of posted jobs were targeting low -skilled and/or entry level workers. In both years, Amazon was the major source of employment (Figure 15). However, it is not surprising that the healthcare sector was the second largest recruiter in the city. After all, this is a growth sector for Federal Way, further accentuating the current economic landscape, as well as wage earning potentials. This pattern emerges also in the top-20 posted occupations in both years (Figure 16). Registered nurses and retail salespersons were in high demand in the city. That is the bifurcated employment and economic landscape mentioned earlier. The top recruiting industries also show the same two sectors (Figure 17). Nursing and warehousing were listed among the top desired skills (Figure 18), as well. nnlllll IP11MU19111 Figure 10: Unique Job Postings Advertised Salaries, Jan -Dec 2020 $60,000.00 or higher $56,000.00-$ 59,999.00 $52,000.00-$ 55,999.00 $48,000.00-$ 51,999.00 $44,000.00-$47,999.00 $40,000.00-$43,99940 $36,000.00-$39,999.00 $32,00O. DD-$35,999.00 $28,000. DD-$31,999.00 $24,000. DD-$27,999.00 $20,000.M$23,999.00 $16,000. DD-$19,999.00 Advertised Salarie, Jan -Dec 2021 $70,000.00-$5D0,000.0D $65,000.00-$69,999.00 $60,000.00-$64,999.00 $55,000.00-$59,999.00 $50,000.00-$54,999.01) $45,000.00-$49,999.00 $40,000.00-$44,999.00 $35,000.00-$39,999.00 $30,000.00-$34,999.00 $25,000.00-$29,999.00 $20,000.00-$24,999.00 $15,000.00-$19,999.00 0 200 400 6D0 800 1000 1200 0 200 40n 600 86D loon 1200 6 Report provided by UW Tacoma Office of Community Partnerships' Center for Applied Urban Research (CAUR) Figure 11: Advertised Salaries Advertised Wage Trend, Jan -Dec 2020 Advertised Wage Trends, Jan -Dec 2021 $25.00 $25m $20.00 $20m $15.00 $15d10 S1oAo $10A0 $5.00 $5.00 $0.00 $0.00 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 0Ct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Op Nov DEC-21 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2022 2021 2021 2021 2022 2021 2021 Figure 12: Advertised Wage Trends Education Requirement, Jan -Dec 2020 M.ter's&gree Ph.D. or Bachelor's degree 12% High school or 26% Educatiuon Requirement, Jan -Dec 2021 Education Listed 48% GED 29% Figure 13: Education Requirement pion J 7 Report provided by UW Tacoma Office of Community Partnerships' Center for Applied Urban Research (CAUR) Minimum Experience Requirement, Jan -Dec 2020 2-3 1, 0-1 2' Minimum Experience Requirement, Jan -Dec 2021 7 -9 years Experience Listed soy Jo Experience 0 1 Listed 1 59% Figure 14: Minimum Experience Requirements Companies with 50 or more Unique Postings, Jan -Dec 2020 Signawre Healthcare Sunbelt Staffing Avalon Health Care Accountable Healthcare Staffing Homestreet Bank Tell Corporation 5p111Health FedEx Federal Way School District Kroger Virginia Mason Medical Center The Home Depot Life Care nrookdale Senior Living D. ita Robert Halt Highline Medical Center Lowe's Com Spirit He alth Ammon Companies with 50 or more Unique Postings, Jan-Dec2022 Securitas Signature Healthcare Sea Mar Community Health Centers Sorbucks Gmystar GPAC The Home Depot Revature St. Franck Hospital Aerotek Ki It Corporation Sysco MultiCere Walmart Federal Way School District Kroger Tell Corporation Vl rgll i CHI St, Joseph's Health Brookdale Senior Living Allred Hnrversal Robert Half Lawe's Aya Healthcare CommonSpirit Health federal Way Public Schools Life Care Dayha Amazon 0 too 200 300 400 Soo No 0 200 400 600 Boo 1,000 1,200 1,40C Figure 15: Companies with 50+ Unique Postings 8 Report provided by UW Tacoma Office of Community Partnerships' Center for Applied Urban Research (CAUR) Tap Occupations, Jan -Dec 2020 Top Occupations, Jan -Dec 2021 Personal service Managers, All Other,... Speech -Language Pathologists Nursing Assistants Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing... Fast Food and Counter Workers Medical and Health Services Managers Real Estate Sales Agents Maintenance and Repair Workers, General Medical Assistants Accountants and Auditors Secretaries and Administrative Assistant$,.. Merchandise Displayers and Window... Heavy and Traclor-Trailer Truck Drivers Home Health and Personal Care Aides Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational... Sales Representatives, Wholesale and... Medical Dosimetrists, Medical Records... Customer Service Representatives First -Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers Stockers and Order Fillers Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material... Retail Salespersons Registered Nurses Nursing Assistants Real Estate Sales Agents Speech -Language Pathologists Merchandise Displayers and Window... Security Guards Medical Assistants Home Health and Personal Care Aides Secretaries and Administrative Assistants,... Maintenance and Repair Workers, General Sales Representatives, Wholesale and... Medical and Health Services Managers Fast Food and Counter Workers Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational... Heavy and Tractor Trailer Truck Drivers Medical Oosimetrishs, Medical Records... Customer Service Representatives First -Line Supervisors of Retail Sales... Stockers and Order Fillers Retail Salespersons Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material... Registered No- 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1AW Figure 16: Top Occupations Top Industries, Jan — Dec 2020 Public Administration Wholesale Trade Information Educational services Construction Other Services (except Public Admmistratic n) Manufacturing Transportation and Warehousing Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Accommodation and Food services Flnanre and Insurance Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Health Care and Social Assistance Retail Trade Administrative and support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Top Industries, Jan -Dec 2021 Wholesale Trade Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Information Other Services lexcept Public Administration) Transportation and Warehousing Construction Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Educational Services Manufacturing Finance and Insurance Accommodation and Food Services Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remedlation Services Health Care and Social Assistance Retail Trade 0 500 1'" 1,500 2,000 2,500 Figure 17: Top Industries 0 SOu 1,000 1,500 2,u00 2,500 3,00u 9 Report provided by UW Tacoma Office of Community Partnerships' Center for Applied Urban Research (CAUR) Top Specialized Skills, Jan -Dec 2020 Top Specialized Skills, Jan -Dec 2021 R,,G.... t Gp ,,tion Product Knowledge Nursing Care Intercultural Competence Grcedng Cuslgmers Patlent Educ.den And Coumeling Medical Records oars entry 61111ne Housekeeping C.At ,Relationship Management He me Health [are Auditing Marketing Accounting CardiaP.lmonary Resuxdatlan (CPR) SMkg7echnlques Warehousing Basle Life Support Merchandising Nursing 0 2W 4W 60o SW 1,0W 1,2W 1,40D Construction Medical Recard5 Ad—d Cardiovascular life Support (ACTS} Imcicing Nursing Care 1—tory Management Cash Reglster Cash Handling Data Entry Bgling Restaurant Operation Custemer R.I.i.nshlp Management A--ting 5d1mg Techniques Auditing Marketing Cardiopulmonary Res. sedation (CPR} Basic Life Support Merchandising Nursing warehousing Figure 18: Top Specialized Skills Conclusion 0 2W 4W 6W SW 1,X01,2W1,4W1,5WE,WD It is clear from the existing data that the City of Federal Way is building a more robust economy based on healthcare and social assistance, while maintaining its retail sector, even though the growth in the latter is relatively low. At the same time, information and professional/technical sectors are rapidly growing, albeit that they are still small in size. This presents the city with a unique opportunity to build a unique urban experience that focuses on live, work, and play principals that grow a balance of professional and service jobs, offering urban amenities and shopping/entertainment, and reducing the level of commuting. Federal Way has an enviable geography that benefits from proximity to Seattle, Bellevue, and Renton economic agglomeration, complementing their tech sector through small and medium companies. Federal Way could easily become the entrepreneurial and business incubation zone for a professional population that could produce higher expendable income for supporting its retail, entertainment, and the arts sectors. Federal Way is also close to the Port of Tacoma and Sea-Tac, which gives it national and international connectivity. The city is also blessed with a diverse population that is a point of attraction for the younger professional population and many small and mid -size, particularly, tech companies. These are opportunities that need to be tapped to build an even stronger and more diverse economy, turning Federal Way into a major employment center and a regional destination. 10 Report provided by UW Tacoma Office of Community Partnerships' Center for Applied Urban Research (CAUR)